Lorenz Hilfiker

4 Posts

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Lorenz is a Tbilisi-based blogger with a PhD in mathematical physics. He is the author of covidingeorgia.com, a blog using data to track the development of COVID-19 in Georgia.

A police car during the curfew in Tbilisi. Photo: Mariam Nikuradze/OC Media.

Analysis

Analysis | Georgia’s COVID-19 reproduction number bodes well for the lockdown

by Lorenz Hilfiker

•7 min read

There is good news amidst the persistently high incidence of COVID-19 in Georgia: the effective reproduction number, ‘R’ had already dropped to 1.03 (+-0.02) by the day before new lockdown measures were introduced. This bodes well for the effectiveness of the current interventions. R is a key metric to monitor the spread of any epidemic. It measures the number of people one infected person passes the virus on to, on average. If R is larger than 1, the number of infections increases; if R is lo

An informational poster about COVID-19 on a bus in Tbilisi. Photo: Tamuna Chkareuli/OC Media.

Analysis

Analysis | Georgia struggles to respond to latest COVID-19 surge

by Lorenz Hilfiker

•6 min read

Within a single month, Georgia has gone from international COVID-19 model country to a high-risk zone. The government has adopted a more relaxed approach than in spring, relying on citizens’ cooperation rather than strict lockdowns. But mobility data indicates that the eastern half of the country has been slow to adapt to the return of the pandemic. New confirmed cases reached a record 1595 on Thursday, while the death toll has reached 178. Already on Sunday, Department Head Marina Endeladze f

A straight line in this chart corresponds to exponential growth with a fixed transmission rate. The steeper the slope of a line, the faster the spread of the virus. The four dashed lines indicate exponential growth where cases double daily, every third day, every week and every two weeks, respectively.

Analysis

Analysis | Georgia follows the Japan trajectory, for now

by Lorenz Hilfiker

•4 min read

As COVID-19 infections in Georgia continue to grow slowly but steadily, we can now take a closer look at how this development compares with the outbreaks in other countries. While Georgia is on the same trajectory as Japan, it currently falls short of the benchmark set by some other wealthy east-Asian countries. The first cases in Georgia were confirmed around the same time as in many European countries. Yet, the virus has so far spread considerably less than in most of the Western world. Fo

Analysis

Analysis | How COVID-19 could increase mortality rates for all age groups in Georgia

by Lorenz Hilfiker

•7 min read

Much of the conversation around COVID-19, in Georgia and elsewhere, has focused on the increased risk of death for older people. While older people are more likely to die as a result of the virus, modelling suggests the increase in the risk of death could be the same for all ages. As the number of fatalities due to the Coronavirus pandemic rises worldwide (over 65,000 as of 5 April, and doubling every 5.5 days), more discussions focus on the different scenarios countries are going to face in t

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