Behind closed doors, Abkhazians are watching the results of the Georgian parliamentary elections and analysing the allegations of irregularities. Opinions are divided on what the current electoral impasse — and a possible rapprochement with Russia — could mean for Abkhazia. 

As the fallout of Georgia’s parliamentary elections and subsequent allegations of widespread fraud continue, a different picture is emerging in Abkhazia.

Ahead of the election, authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia closed their checkpoints, effectively barring the more than 30,000 ethnic Georgians who live there from crossing into Tbilisi-controlled territory to cast their votes. 

As in previous years, the Georgian Central Election Commission’s summary of the election results displayed no votes from Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

Despite often refraining from commenting to the media or writing on social networks, Abkhazians still paid close attention to the election, often with an eye on their own security. 

‘Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them’

Abkhazian opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba was one of the few public figures to openly speak about the election and its aftermath. 

In a lengthy post on Telegram, Ardzinba drew parallels between modern-day Georgia and what he said was its long history of seeking stronger external powers to act as patrons. 

He implicitly compared Georgia’s current trend of seeking rapprochement with Russia to its behaviour hundreds of years ago, claiming that Georgia has long been an unreliable partner that consistently turns on its allies. 

Having found the West as a new ally, ‘Georgia has lived happily ever after’, Ardzinba wrote. 

‘But today in the region, the West has weakened, and Russia, on the contrary, is slowly but surely returning its leading role. And Georgian Dream with a new U-turn comes on stage in Georgia’.

Concluding his post, Ardzinba emphasised that ‘those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them’. It was unclear whom he was warning. 

‘It’s what Abkhazia faces in every election’

Entrepreneur and blogger Astamur Kakalia had no particular expectations for the Georgian parliamentary elections. 

But Kakalia was nonplussed when he heard about the widespread criticisms of the election and accusations that it was rigged or tampered with. 

‘I read about “identified violations in the electoral process in Georgia” — we do not consider this a violation at all — the [organised] transportation of voters who support their candidate is our tradition, not a violation’, Kakalia wrote on Facebook. 

He noted that the same went for reports about hired hands who stood around polling stations with the goal of ‘controlling the will of voters’ — ‘it’s what our system is based on’.

‘Unequal access to the media is also our tradition. It is these “electoral traditions” of ours that are the backbone of the political model that we have had since 2004’, Kakalia added.

He continued by claiming that all the main political actors in Abkhazia, the media and their teams, political scientists, lawyers, and ‘even street fixers’ were an organic part of this ‘system’, but that its opponents were excluded. 

‘Our “electoral politics”, if you can call it that, was created by them and for them’, Kakalia said. 

Security concerns remain top of mind

Several others who wrote on social media or talked to OC Media said concerns about the security of Abkhazia remained the key issue regarding the election. 

Aslan Kobakhia, a veteran of the War in Abkhazia (1992–1993), said he was sure that a victory by the opposition could lead to an escalation of Georgia’s conflict with Abkhazia. 

‘Our [Georgian] neighbours are having a hard time sorting out their relationship amongst each other. They will sort it out themselves, we just need to be vigilant and watch’, Kobakhia wrote on Facebook. 

‘I am convinced that our security forces are tightly controlling the situation’ by the demarcation zone with Georgian-government controlled territory. 

‘Any provocation must be suppressed in the most brutal manner!!!’’, he concluded. 

Pensioner Ludmila Kobakhia, of no relation to Aslan Kobakhia, also echoed the same security concerns. She told OC Media that Georgia’s potential rapprochement with Russia could be dangerous for Abkhazia’s independence, but not necessarily bad for the average person. 

‘If Russia can reconcile us [with Georgia], and we stop thinking every day about whether Georgia will attack us, is that a bad thing?’ she asked.

‘The most important thing is for all wars to end and for people to stop dying’.

This sentiment was shared by some among the younger generation as well. 

A fourth-year student at Abkhazia State University, who preferred to remain anonymous, said the current moment was highly unpredictable because it was unclear who has the upper hand in the balance of power. 

‘We do not know how strong Russia is. The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost three years, and there is no end in sight. If Georgia decides to open a second front for Russia here, it is not at all clear that Russia will be able to protect us’, the student told OC Media. 

He cited US intelligence reports that indicate the deteriorating strength of the Russian army, which he worried could mean ‘we will find ourselves on the frontline of the threat’.

But others remained unconcerned. 

The owner of a guesthouse in Sukhumi (Sukhum), who likewise spoke to OC Media on the condition of anonymity, argued that Georgia would not go to war, regardless of which party was in power. 

For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.