Moscow-backed Gunba wins Abkhazia’s runoff presidential election

According to official results announced by Abkhazia’s Central Election Committee (CEC) on Sunday, former Vice President Badra Gunba has won the run-off presidential election, securing 54.7% of the vote and besting his competitor, opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba.

The CEC reported that voter turnout on 1 March was around 70%, with just over 100,000 voters participating, a figure that represented an increase of 1,000 voters from the first round.

The run-off vote was held after no candidate received a majority in the first round of the election in February.

The run-off election was, in theory, the final step to end a political crisis in Abkhazia that began with a controversial investment legislation that would have given preferential treatment to Russian business interests.

The proposed legislation was eventually scrapped amidst protests and widespread anger towards former President Aslan Bzhaniya, culminating in his resignation in November 2024.

Both Gunba and Ardzinba are ostensibly pro-Russian, but differed in their approaches concerning Abkhazia’s relations with the Kremlin — Ardzinba more stridently opposed Bzhaniya, while Gunba was considered to pursue policies more in line with him.

In the lead-up to the run-off vote, Russia ramped up its support to Abkhazia, with several officials traveling there to pledge support and highlight their cooperation with Gunba. The moves were widely seen as an attempt to sway the election in Gunba’s favour.

The CEC accused Gunba of violating campaign laws, citing meetings he had held with senior Russian officials, saying it constituted ‘participation in campaigning activities in support of the candidate [Gunba]’, which violates electoral legislation.

Tensions rise on election day

As the vote unfolded on Saturday, there were numerous reports of disturbances, particularly outside of the capital city, Sukhumi (Sukhum).

The most notable incident occurred in Gantiadi (Tsandrpysh), a village in the Gagra district.

A group of armed and masked men were reported to have attacked a polling station, clashing with police stationed there. After threatening election workers on the scene and damaging an unknown number of ballots, the men fled, with police in pursuit. A gunfight ensued, but it is unknown if any casualties occurred as a result. Authorities said an investigation had been launched into the incident.

In another incident, a group of people stormed a polling station in the village of Kutulbani (Asabulei) and poured an unknown type of liquid on the ballots. The group was reportedly affiliated with Ardzinba.

Prior to that, there were other irregularities in villages around Abkhazia, including issues with electoral infrastructure, such as defective stamps.

There were also issues in polling stations outside of Abkhazia.

At a polling station in Cherkessk, Russia, there were reports of a ‘voting carousel’, in which pre-filled ballots — already marked with a vote for Gunba — were distributed. There were also at least nine cases of someone voting with someone else’s passport in Cherkessk.

Nonetheless, CEC chair Dmitry Marshan said the situation was under control, and the subsequent vote counting process in Sukhumi proceeded unhindered.

Who is Abkhazia’s new president?

Following Bzhaniya's resignation, Gunba became the acting president, having previously served as Bzhaniya’s vice president, and is therefore considered to be his political heir.

Prior to that, he had a long history in Abkhazian politics and was appointed as culture minister in 2011.

He was replaced as culture minister following the 2014 Abkhazian revolution, but returned to government as vice president in 2020.

After the results were announced, Russian President Vladimir Putin published a letter on the Kremlin’s website extending his congratulations to Gunba.

‘The victory in the elections, which took place in conditions of free expression of the people’s will, confirmed the support of Abkhazian citizens for your line on ensuring domestic political stability and progressive socio-economic development [of Abkhazia]’, Putin wrote.

‘I hope that friendly, allied Russian–Abkhaz relations will continue to strengthen for the benefit of our fraternal peoples. I wish you success, as well as good health and prosperity’.

As with previous elections in Abkhazia, the Georgian government condemned the holding of the vote, saying it was ‘illegitimate’ and that it was a ‘blatant violation of international law and Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders’.

For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

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In the early hours of Tuesday, Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhaniya announced his resignation after days of protests centred around a controversial agreement on Russian investments. Bzhaniya still intends to run in the upcoming presidential elections, which are expected to take place in February.…

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