Russian President Vladimir Putin did not issue a statement congratulating Abkhazia on its ‘Day of International Recognition’, prompting observers to speculate that this may be another sign of Russia’s increasingly close ties with Georgia.

Putin has issued a statement, often via video, congratulating Abkhazia every year since 26 August 2008.

This year President Aslan Bzhaniya instead received a call from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the decree recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008. Medvedev currently serves as deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council.

Inal Khashig, a journalist and political analyst, suggested on Telegram that Putin might have chosen not to congratulate Abkhazia this year in order ‘not to offend [former Georgian Prime Minister] Bidzina Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream before the parliamentary elections.’

He speculated that following Georgia’s October parliamentary elections, Tbilisi might move towards recognising Sukhumi (Sukhum) and subsequently establishing a confederation between Georgia and Abkhazia with Russia’s blessing.

Georgian Dream issued an appeal last week urging Georgians to help them secure a constitutional majority to prepare for the ‘peaceful integration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’, among other pledges. The ruling party did not elaborate on how it intends to do so.

Government critics in Georgia have speculated since that the Georgian government might seek to establish a confederation with Abkhazia.

Roman Gotsiridze, a member of Georgia’s Euro-Optimists party, condemned the notion and questioned the need for any legislative or constitutional changes to establish relations with Sukhumi.

‘What kind of change would be necessary to establish relations with Abkhazia? It likely implies a confederation — recognising Abkhazia’s independence. Apparently, two independent states would constitutionally unite into a confederative entity, from which separation would be simple, as we know the nature of a confederation’, he said.

However, pro-government commentators have pointed out that Putin was not obliged to congratulate Abkhazia on the holiday.

Olesya Malanka, the administrator of the Facebook group Free Abkhazia wrote a post dismissing the lack of statements from Putin as insignificant.

‘By God, it's embarrassing not to know the concept of protocol. Putin is a politician with a world-famous name, and with all due respect to Abkhazia, and to Bzhaniya too, Putin officially congratulates on round dates’, she wrote.

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.