Armenia and Azerbaijan to ‘agree on Trump Route’ between Azerbaijan and exclave

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will reportedly sign a deal to create a so-called ‘Trump Route’ linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan during upcoming talks in Washington.

While specifics have not yet been confirmed, both Pashinyan and Aliyev will meet with Trump and the three leaders will also hold a joint press conference on Friday.

In March, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on the terms of a peace deal to end decades of bitter conflict, but the deal has yet to be signed, with Baku pushing for preconditions and Yerevan accusing Azerbaijan of moving the goalpost.

Nonetheless, expectations of progress towards a more concrete resolution resulting from the Washington meeting are high. It is the first time there has been a trilateral meeting between Armenian, Azerbaijani, and US leaders in Washington.

On Thursday, journalist Alex Raufoglu shared ‘preliminary details’ of what the summit would address after speaking to unnamed US officials.

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Raufoglu said Pashinyan and Aliyev would sign four documents:

• A ‘joint declaration’, that Raufoglu said was ‘described as the most important document’. The declaration would be signed by Pashinyan and Aliyev and witnessed by Trump, and is intended to cement an ‘irreversible pathway to peace’.
• ‘Initialing the peace agreement’ — the respective foreign ministries will ‘initial’, but not sign, a peace agreement that has been negotiated over the past few months. It is unclear if this is the same peace agreement that both sides agreed on the terms of back in March.
• A joint letter to exit the OSCE Minsk Group, the body that has been the primary mediator of peace talks for decades. Dissolving the group has been one of Azerbaijan’s preconditions.
• Bilateral memorandums of understanding between both Armenia and the US and Azerbaijan and the US.

In addition, Raufoglu said the ‘central focus of the summit is a new transit and development called the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” or TRIPP’. The use of the word ‘corridor’ — the terminology often used by Azerbaijan, and rejected by Armenia, will be deliberately dropped, as it is ‘politically charged’ and ‘often associated with Russian influence’, he said.

The route will be a ‘commercial, not military or security project’, Raufoglu said. ‘While the US will not deploy troops, it will take responsibility for ensuring the route’s safe operation through commercial agreements with “top-class operators” ’.

Separately, Reuters reported, citing unnamed officials, that the deal will grant the US ‘exclusive rights’ to develop the route.

In July, in what appeared to be an off-hand remark, the US Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, suggested that the US could take over a stretch of road inside Armenia on a lease, overseeing traffic on it.

An MP from Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party later said that Armenia rejected an offer to lease a road — likely one that would connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan — to the US, citing concerns over ‘conceding sovereignty’.

This spurred indirect debates between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s leaderships, with Aliyev saying he was not willing to allow a third country to control the road and demanding that Azerbaijani nationals using the road not see any Armenian border guards.

Ahead of talks, Armenian MPs clash with the diaspora, media

As the shape of the talks appeared to come closer into focus, influential diaspora organisations and other figures expressed doubt that a favourable outcome would be reached.

In a flurry of posts on X, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) attacked the proposed plans — without knowing the specifics — saying it was a ‘fake peace deal’ and that ‘ “peace” at gunpoint is no peace at all’.

The ANCA then went on to attack Trump, with the organisation’s Executive Director, Aram Hamparian, arguing that ‘The false “peace” [Trump] seeks offends — actually outrages — the Americans most invested in prospects for a real peace: Our nation’s two million citizens of Armenian heritage’.

Separately, the ANCA referenced the spread of the Armenian diaspora across swing states in the US, implying there would be electoral consequences for ‘pushing a fake “peace” plan on Yerevan’.

Responding to the ANCA’s criticism of Trump, Armenian MP Sargis Khandanyan, a member of Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, hit back at the organisation.

Arsen Torosyan, another MP and member of the Civil Contract party, also responded to the ANCA on X, saying ‘once again, just shut up!’.

Separately, and without naming any specific actors, Torosyan warned that ‘in the coming days, hybrid attacks on our country will intensify as we move closer to achieving our goal of establishing peace, which will significantly strengthen our sovereignty and independence’.

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The proposed route has been the subject of heightened discussion in recent weeks.

OC MediaYousef Bardouka