Senior Russian officials have made a series of promises of increased support for Abkhazia alongside one of the candidates in Saturday’s presidential election — a move widely seen as an attempt to sway the vote.

Former Vice President Badra Gunba will face opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba in a run-off on Saturday after neither candidate won a majority in the first round.

Gunba is considered to be former President Aslan Bzhaniya’s political heir.

While both Ardzinba and Gunba are both ostensibly pro-Russian, the Kremlin has made it clear that the latter is its favoured candidate.

While relations with Russia, as well Moscow’s preferred candidate, have long been one of the most critical factors in Abkhazian elections, the Kremlin’s open involvement in Abkhazian politics appear to have reached new levels, with some arguing that both sides are losing patience with each other.

The run-off election is, in theory, the final step to end a political crisis in Abkhazia that began with controversial investment legislation that would have given preferential treatment to Russian business interests.

The proposed legislation was eventually scrapped amidst protests and widespread anger towards Bzhaniya, culminating in his resignation in November 2024.

Snap presidential elections earlier in February resulted in no candidate gaining a majority.

Russia highlights cooperation with Abkhazia — and Gunba

As the vote has approached, Russian officials have taken a number of steps to support Gunba.

On 23 February, Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko held a joint press conference with Gunba. In it, he announced that Russia was prepared to amend a medical assistance agreement with Abkhazia to allow Abkhazians with Russian citizenship easier access to Russian medical institutions.

Following the announcement, Gunba reportedly thanked him for his help, noting that this was a ‘very important issue, given that a large number of our citizens are also citizens of the Russian Federation’.

The vast majority of Abkhazians have Russian citizenship, which allows them access to a much wider range of countries, as the Abkhazian passport is only recognised by five countries, including Russia.

He also noted that he had spoken about the issue a day prior with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, stating that this would be one of the first priorities following the presidential elections.

The following day, Abkhazia’s acting Minister of Education, Inal Gabliya, and Russia’s Education Minister Sergei Kravtsov signed a memorandum of cooperation and approved a joint action plan for 2025.

The plan includes training for teachers in Abkhazia as well as equipping schools with ‘modern equipment’.

‘We are in constant dialogue with our colleagues from Abkhazia and are working together to improve the quality of education’, Kratsov said, adding that the memorandum was a ‘logical step that consolidates our agreements and determines the further development of the partnership’.

Since then, there have been daily news reports about increased cooperation between Russia and Abkhazia in the health and education sectors.

Many of these moves have been directly connected to Gunba or in his presence, despite promises from the Kremlin that Russia would support whichever candidate won the election.

Gunba was also present when the long-shuttered airport in Sukhumi (Sukhum) received a test flight from Moscow and when supplies and humanitarian goods were shipped in from Russia. When Sergei Kiriyenko, the deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration, visited Abkhazia, he also met with Gunba and highlighted their cooperation.

Abkhazia’s Electoral Commission accuses Gunba of violating election law

Shortly after Murashko’s announcement on 23 February, Abkhazia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) declared that Gunba had violated Abkhazian legislation by attending a meeting between Murashko and the Abkhazian acting Health Minister Eduard Butba that same day.

According to the CEC, to hold such a high-ranking meeting with the presence of Gunba was considered ‘participation in campaigning activities in support of the candidate [Gunba]’, which violates electoral legislation. They additionally called on Gunba and Ardzinba to adhere to an agreement signed on 21 February, which emphasised that ‘only the people of Abkhazia will determine their future’.

Criticism of Gunba’s participation in such meetings, as well as interactions with the Russian leadership, was again raised during two-hour televised debate between Gunba and Ardzinba on 27 February.

When pushed by Ardzinba to address the allegations he was violating electoral law, Gunba responded by stating that such meetings were ‘aimed at improving the quality of life’ of Abkhazians and were not for the sake of an election campaign.

‘I consider the accusations that this is an election campaign to be unfounded. If you had such an opportunity and did not do it for our citizens, it would be unfair. That is why I used every opportunity to help’, he told Ardzinba.

Fears of unknown actors taking part in the elections

In addition to the presence of high-ranking Russian officials in Abkhazia, opposition politicians have complained of the presence of unknown actors whom they accuse of interfering in the election process.

After the polls closed during the first round of the presidential elections on 15 February, Ardzinba noted that numerous unknown armed and uniformed people had surrounded the CEC building in Sukhumi, alleging they did not belong there.

In order to clarify the situation, Ardzinba asked Acting President Valery Bganba to confirm with Abkhazia’s security services if they could control who came in and out of Abkhazia from Russia.

Following this, Bganba held a conversation with the head of Abkhazia’s security service, Dmitry Kuchuberiya, who reportedly stated that the state security service did not have such resources. Kuchuberiya was dismissed shortly after this meeting.

During the televised debate on 27 February, Arzinba highlighted the fact that the local security services were unable to control who comes to Abkhazia and for what purposes, noting this was particularly problematic during the pre-election period.

For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

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