We may look back in the future at this time in June 2025 and say that a global conflict, perhaps something like World War III, had already begun. It certainly feels like that these days.
Over the past week, a new war — between Israel and Iran — has erupted just neighbouring our region. And while as of now, it has yet to directly involve the Caucasus, the impacts have already been felt.
In addition to my day job as an editor, I also write analytical articles, and I’ve been working for a while on a piece looking into the trilateral alliance between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the US. I was originally inspired by the news in April that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to visit Baku, but the piece took a hiatus when his trip was abruptly cancelled two weeks later.
I kept working on it in the meantime, but now that a war has broken out — so far confined to dueling missile attacks — I have to go back to the drawing board and rewrite much of it.
Iran plays a complex role in the South Caucasus, particularly in the context of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. Tehran has long been one of Yerevan’s most consistent allies, and while it has opted not to intervene in previous outbreaks of fighting, it has also said that Azerbaijani attempts to take Armenian territory would be unacceptable. At the same time, Iran boasts a significant ethnic Azerbaijani population, and separatist sentiments, while likely overstated, may be simmering below the surface.
More importantly in this context, Azerbaijan and Israel have developed a complex partnership, with Tel Aviv providing Baku advanced weaponry that helped it gain an edge over Yerevan, and Baku providing Tel Aviv energy. Both sides have also used their friendship to demonstrate their bonafides as countries that respect religious minorities and value the harmony between Jews and Muslims.
The war has drawn all of this into sharper relief and led to an outpouring of conspiracy theories, vitriol, and accusations, on all sides.
My colleagues at OC Media are well aware of my obsession with Twitter (I refuse to call it X), and while I acknowledge it is often a cesspool, I find it to be a useful source to identify how seemingly fringe conspiracy theories can enter the mainstream.
Wading through the stream of garbage I see on Twitter can be taxing, but it also helps me write articles, like a recent piece about how the brief India-Pakistan war played out in the Armenia-Azerbaijan information space.
This time, I’ve been watching how many on Twitter have spun various theories that Israel recruited ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran to help carry out the attack, or that missiles targeting Iran were launched directly from Azerbaijan.
The veracity of these theories is dubious, particularly that Azerbaijan allowed its territory to be used to strike Iran, but they apparently gained enough traction for Hikmat Hajiyev, an influential aide of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, to take to Twitter himself and reject the allegations.
‘These kinds of absurd and fantasy-driven allegations have no connection to reality and constitute nothing more than deliberate disinformation’, Hajiyev wrote.
On the other side, some in the Armenian media space, such as the prominent lobbying group the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), have warned that Azerbaijan may use a weakened and distracted Iran to launch its own attack on Armenia.
Beyond the accusations and theories, the impact has already been felt on the ground in Armenia.
Earlier this week, Armenia sent nuclear inspectors to border areas to see if the Israeli strikes had caused an uptick in radiation levels.
And in recent days, there have been reports of a significant increase in Iranians crossing the border into Armenia.
On 18 June, we published an op-ed about the conflict, with contributing writer Samad Shikhi arguing that Baku is hoping the situation stabilises before it reaches Azerbaijan.
But Israel has openly stated that its goal is regime change in Tehran, and is betting on the US to join in the fight.
If such an outcome were to happen, it would fundamentally alter the regional dynamics and contribute to the already high level of instability.
As for now, where this conflict goes is hard to predict, but be sure that we at OC Media will be covering all of the implications for our region, so stay tuned.
