The South Caucasus reacts to Trump’s reelection

The leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have all swiftly congratulated Donald Trump on his reelection as president of the US, expressing hope for further cooperation with his incoming administration.

In Georgia, senior officials offered their congratulations to Trump, with Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili leading the way, referring to the US as Georgia’s ‘strategic partner and friend of 33 years’. 

‘[It] is needed now more than ever to support [Georgia’s] Euro-Atlantic integration, bolster regional security and stability, and safeguard our freedom’, Zourabichvili wrote on X.

Congratulations on your election, Mr. President @realDonaldTrump

A strong 🇺🇸-our strategic partner and friend of 33 years -is needed now more than ever to support 🇬🇪’s Euro-Atlantic integration, bolster regional security and stability, and safeguard our freedom & independence

— Salome Zourabichvili (@Zourabichvili_S) November 6, 2024

She was quickly followed by her former ally, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who congratulated US President-elect Trump on his ‘decisive victory’ in the election.

‘I am confident that President Trump’s leadership will  promote peace globally and in our region as well as ensure [a] restart in [US–Georgia] relations’, Kobakhidze added. 

Congratulations to President @realDonaldTrump on His decisive victory in the election. I am confident that President Trump’s leadership will promote peace globally and in our region as well as ensure restart in 🇺🇸-🇬🇪 relations.

— Irakli Kobakhidze (@PM_Kobakhidze) November 6, 2024

By mentioning ‘peace’ and the prospect of revitalising US-Georgian relations, Kobakhidze appeared to have crafted his update on the X platform to echo and strengthen the official line pushed by him and his government. 

Georgian Dream, which came to power in 2012 and governed during Trump’s first presidential tenure (2017–2021), largely attributed disagreements with the US to the US Embassy and specific agencies, a stance echoed even more distinctly by its satellite groups. Ties between the US and Georgia began to deteriorate significantly during President Joe Biden’s administration, and notably hit an all-time low following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Since 2022, the Georgian government has been tacitly accusing Western powers and NATO of provoking Russia into invading Ukraine, adding recently that this was also the case in 2008, when they allegedly instructed then-President Mikheil Saakashvili to incite the Russian invasion during the August War.

In introducing draconian laws to restrict civil freedoms and subtly, yet unmistakably, accusing the US of seeking a coup in Georgia, Georgian Dream simultaneously attempted to persuade Georgian voters, in the lead-up to last month’s parliamentary elections, that their adversary was not the US itself, but rather a ‘global war party’.

The party has used the term to describe an alleged international elite — at times labelling them ‘liberal’ but more frequently ‘pseudo-liberal’ —  who, they claim, have been directing the policies of both the EU and the US with the intent of drawing Georgia into another Russian invasion.

[Read also: Biden snubs Georgian PM Kobakhidze by revoking UN reception invite] 

In his October polemics with the US Embassy in Georgia, Ivanishvili offered additional insight into what he and his close confidants in top government positions, including Kobakhidze, referred to as the ‘global war party’. 

‘The issues of oligarchic influence, informal governance, the “deep state”, and the war party in the US have not been raised by us; rather, they have emerged as a central theme in the ongoing US presidential campaign’, Ivanishvili wrote in his statement on 1 October.

Kobakhidze has recently reiterated that Georgian Dream looks forward to resetting relations with the US after securing a fourth consecutive victory in the parliamentary elections. While pro-government media in Georgia have leaned strongly in favour of Trump and the anti-liberal narratives typical of him and other global conservative movements, Georgian Dream also clarified, ahead of both the Georgian and US elections, that they aimed to ‘settle’ relations with Washington, even if it meant to be dominated by the alleged, so-called ‘global war party’.

The party’s executive secretary, Mamuka Mdinaradze, also offered his congratulations to Trump, saying that ‘Georgian pseudo-liberals’ — an apparent reference to major pro-Western opposition groups and their supporters — were not ‘thrilled’ about his victory. 

He drew comparisons between his party’s recent anti-gender and transphobic campaign messages and those of Trump to insist Georgian Dream did not deserve to be ‘mocked’ for raising such issues.

[Read more: Ivanishvili rails against ‘men’s milk’ and the West and vows to punish ‘scumbag’ political rivals] 

‘Trump’s campaign was entirely based on narratives of peace, prosperity, economic progress, and traditional family values. Trump openly stated that a man is a man, and a woman is a woman […] It turns out this wasn’t just a Georgian narrative; there are leaders worldwide, including the newly elected US President, who speak openly on this, and there’s nothing to mock about it’, Mdinaradze insisted. 

Georgian Dream aims to secure the incoming US administration’s endorsement of their October parliamentary victory, unlike the current administration, which has questioned its legitimacy and called for an investigation into election violations.

Azerbaijan’s Aliyev praises Trump’s ‘confident victory’

News of Trump’s victory in the elections was warmly received by Azerbaijani officials and state media, with President Ilham Aliyev congratulating Trump on the victory with a letter.

‘The confident victory you gained in the elections is the clear reflection of a big support and confidence the friendly American people places in you personally and the political course you pursue’.

‘Benefiting a vast potential of our joint activities with the United States, we are determined to further expand and deepen our bilateral partnership in all areas, including political, economic-commercial, security, energy, green and digital transition and others. We do believe that during your new presidency, the relations between Azerbaijan and the United States will further strengthen as the new cooperation areas will be defined’, he wrote.

The Azerbaijani state news agency APA, published Aliyev’s letter, stressing Trump’s ‘strong support for Azerbaijan’s energy strategy’. 

Other pro-government outlets also republished Aliyev’s letter and covered the elections.

The US presidential elections took place a week before the UN COP29 summit in Baku, which is scheduled for 11–22 November. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has been seeking to position itself as a key exporter of petrol to the EU, whose states were left scrambling for alternatives to Russian gas.

Independent observers and government critics were less enthusiastic about the results of the elections.

Giyas Ibrahim, an activist, wrote on Facebook that the ‘world will die a little faster’.

Afghan Mukhtarli, a journalist in exile, was critical of Trump, stating that ‘two greedy people’ — tech billionaire Elon Musk and Trump — had won.

‘The worst thing is that one of these people is stupid and the other is cunning’, he said. ‘The era of Elon Musk has begun in the world, not Trump’.

He added that a Trump presidency will be ‘difficult for Ukraine’, which he said had also ‘become a victim of the Biden administration’s indecisiveness’.

Ali Karimli, the leader of the opposition Popular Front Party, remained quiet, but the leader of the Musavat party, Isa Gambar, said that while the office of the US president was important, he ‘thinks more important institutions exist in the US, and not everything depends on the presidency’.

Armenia expects relations with US to ‘remain warm’

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan congratulated Donald Trump on his ‘impressive’ reelection soon after he was declared president-elect.

‘Mr. President-elect, I look forward to working with you to build up [Armenian-American] strategic bilateral relations based on our shared values, priorities and interests’, Pashinyan wrote on the X platform.

Warmest congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on your impressive victory as the 47th President of the United States. Mr. President-elect, I look forward to working with you to build up 🇦🇲-🇺🇲 strategic bilateral relations based on our shared values, priorities and interests.

— Nikol Pashinyan (@NikolPashinyan) November 6, 2024

Armenia’s Minister of Economy, Gevorg Papoyan, subsequently remarked that he anticipated Armenian–US relations would ‘remain warm’ following Trump’s reelection.

‘We are heading towards [a] strategic partnership, there is a signed document in this regard. I am sure that the good and warm relationship will remain’, Papayan was quoted as saying. 

Papayan was evidently referring to the Armenia-US Strategic Dialogue Joint Statement, which both parties signed in 2022.

Armenian-US relations have significantly improved during Biden’s presidency, in large part due to his April 2021 acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide.

This strengthening relationship was further highlighted by a high-level US delegation visit to Armenia, led by then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in September 2022, in the wake of Azerbaijan’s military assault on Armenia earlier that month. 

The American delegation also used their visit to underscore Armenia’s lack of effective security support from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) amid Azerbaijan’s military aggression. Armenians’ frustration with the CSTO’s reliability in providing protection arguably reached its peak following Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh last year, leading Yerevan effectively freezing their membership in the military alliance.

[Read also: US allocates $20 million to bolster Armenian security] 

Less than two weeks before election day in the US, the security of ethnic Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh and their right to return to their homeland became a prominent topic in the race. Trump accused his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, of ‘doing nothing’ to prevent the exodus of ‘120,000 Armenian Christians’ from the region. Harris had a few weeks prior to Trump’s accusation affirmed the displaced Armenians’ right to return safely to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Trump reportedly reaffirmed his support for this right during a phone conversation with Catholicos Aram I, head of the Armenian Apostolic Church’s Holy See of Cilicia.

The statements were widely perceived as reflecting the importance of Armenian American votes for both candidates.