Aliyev says stability ‘will not exist in South Caucasus’ until peace deal is signed

During an exclusive interview with Euronews during the 12th Global Baku Forum on 14 March, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that while there is currently a quiet period in the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict, ‘until a peace agreement is signed, this stability is not here’.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov previously announced on 13 March that negotiations on the text of the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been completed.

The same day, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that they had agreed to Azerbaijan’s latest proposals, and that the agreement was ready to be signed.

However, in a separate statement hours after the deal was announced, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry named amendments to Armenia’s constitution and the dissolution of the ‘obsolete and dysfunctional’ OSCE Minsk Group as preconditions to signing the deal.

While Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has actively pushed the need for a new constitution — which critics have argued represents a bowing to pressure from Azerbaijan — a referendum on such change is not expected to take place until after the parliamentary elections in 2026, which means that the actual signing of the peace deal could be delayed until next year.

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In his interview on 14 March, Aliyev highlighted that while there was a ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia signed in 1994, the agreement ‘did not mean that the war ended; it just transformed’.

‘The war only ends when you have a peace agreement’, Aliyev said.

‘I would not be so optimistic. I prefer to be realistic. I don’t think that we will achieve stability in the coming months or even coming years’, he added, also citing the war between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that ‘even if the war stops, it is not a guarantee that it will not erupt again’.

‘Unfortunately, the number of conflicts is growing, and if you look at those that have been resolved, we can only see it here, in [Nagorno-Karabakh]. That’s the only one, which was resolved based on international law, historical justice, and this resolution is accepted by the whole world’, Aliyev claimed.

During his interview, Aliyev also emphasised the importance of self-reliance, noting that ‘what is absolutely clear is that every country should be more concentrated on its homework, on its own capability, and not to rely on any kind of assistance or even on international law’, he said.

‘If you always rely on someone’s assistance, then first, you are vulnerable; second, you are not guaranteed that this assistance will be eternal; and third, you lose part of your sovereignty. Because if you depend on someone and always ask for help, then one day, that someone will come and give you a bill’, Aliyev continued.

He also alleged that many countries in the future will concentrate ‘mainly on the bilateral track of relationship rather than on activity within international institutions because some international institutions demonstrate their weakness, if not total paralysis’.

Regarding the South Caucasus specifically, Aliyev stated that there needed to be a focus on trying to ‘live in the neighbourhood as we used to in the times of the Soviet Union’.

‘Yes, we were not independent countries. We could not actually plan our future. We were largely dependent on the Soviet centre. But at least there was an active interaction between the South Caucasian republics’, Aliyev said.

The last topic he touched upon was that of Azerbaijan–US relations, noting that his administration was ‘very disappointed with the deterioration of relations between the previous US administration and Azerbaijan due to, I would say, an unjust approach towards our national interests’.

‘Therefore, we are very enthusiastic about rebuilding our strong partnership and relationship with the US under [President Donald] Trump’s administration’, Aliyev said.

The Global Baku Forum convenes more than 400 heads of state and government and leaders from the public and private sectors to discuss how to overcome global challenges. This year’s theme was ‘Rethinking World Order: Turning Challenges into Opportunities’.

Aliyev says he does not ‘trust’ Armenia the same day Baku and Yerevan agree on a peace treaty

Aliyev also again claimed that Armenia is preparing for a new war against Azerbaijan with France’s support.

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