On 26 October, the architect of Georgian authoritarianism, Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, robbed Georgians of their election. Any future government change through elections is ruled out if the status quo persists.

An ominous calm pervades the country. It appears as though nothing has changed, yet a looming crisis haunts each home, office, and street, whispering of impending disaster. Yet it is also clear that the election administration has finally dismantled the illusion of democratic resistance from so-called ‘democratic’ institutions. A crisis is inevitable.

The inexplicable legitimacy granted to Georgia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) during the pre-election period has culminated in yet another disappointment. The autocracy succeeded in transforming what appeared to be the most reliable and foolproof electronic election system into a tool for unprecedented electoral theft.

By the end of voting on 26 October, the electronic ballot box recorded 1,119,946 votes (53.9%) for the ruling Georgian Dream party, translating into roughly 89 parliamentary seats in Georgia's 150-member parliament. This total is approximately 200,000 more votes than what Georgian Dream received from the proportional list in the 2020 parliamentary elections, when it secured a third term. 

Following the election results, the President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, described the elections as fraudulent and a Russian special operation. The four opposition parties that surpassed the electoral threshold rejected the election results and refused to legitimise the resulting parliament. None of the local or international observation missions deemed the elections free and fair, citing a difficult pre-election environment and numerous violations. Western governments and EU institutions have echoed the concerns of these observation missions, urging an independent investigation into the electoral violations to restore international confidence in the election results. Meanwhile, the regime is attempting to present an investigation led by its own Prosecutor’s Office as independent. All indicators suggest international non-recognition of the elections.

The Georgian people are demanding a plan from the opposition — a plan that will allow the restoration of what has been confiscated, as well as freedom and dignity.

Part of the opposition’s plan, it seems, is to shift political processes to the streets. However, I believe that intensive and sustained engagement with the international community is now essential.

Yet, what is the autocrat’s plan?

So far, Georgian Dream remains calm, awaiting international recognition of the election results. However, the question arises: what will happen as the likelihood of international non-recognition becomes increasingly apparent?

In conditions of non-recognition, the regime will attempt to function and sustain itself within the current reality. Survival will depend on repression and upholding the status quo through displays of force. The government will seek to neutralise all remaining sources of resistance — the civil sector, critical media, and opposition.

This means prohibition and prosecution for the opposition, while Russian-style laws and an anti-corruption bureau target media and civil organisations. Given Georgian Dream’s crisis-response tactics, multiple fronts of repression are likely to emerge. The regime aims to confuse, demoralise, and neutralise its opponents through these actions.

Time is limited. Ideally, the regime will launch swift actions immediately after the first session of the new parliament and the confirmation of its powers, aiming to complete repressions within a year. Ahead of next year’s local government elections, the regime must ensure that those responsible for causing significant disruptions by exposing election fraud — at a high cost to them — no longer exist. 

Civil society needs a plan as well. 

Many are unwilling to believe that Georgia could become another Belarus. This is accurate; Georgia will not be Belarus, but it will become Georgia under the autocratic regime of Bidzina Ivanishvili. 

Now is the time to confront the current reality and channel all efforts into anti-crisis measures. Consolidated efforts are needed to engage actively with the international community and secure maximum support. Such support is essential to ensure the survival of civil society under autocratic conditions in Georgia for as long as possible.

In response to the regime’s rapid actions, swift and extraordinary solutions from the international community are essential to support civil society. As the regime seeks to eliminate spaces for civil society’s existence, all international efforts must focus on creating new spaces for civil society and preserving those that remain.

A new era has dawned in Georgia, one in which the resilience and fighting spirit of active citizens form a crucial pillar. The only barrier to Georgia’s path toward a Belarusian-like state is the vitality of Georgian civil society. This vitality will rely on the scope and strength of international support. Georgian civil society needs a unified international platform, a consolidated bridge for sustained support from the global community. Such a platform will extend the life of civil society in Georgia, ensuring that its voice endures and is not silenced as it was in Belarus.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of OC Media’s editorial board.