
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on peace — so why do they seem headed for war?
Despite the sense of an impending military escalation, experts doubt a full-blown war will occur.
Amidst the current global turmoil, small news outlets like ours could be the first to close. Help us get off grants and become the first reader-funded news site in the Caucasus, and keep telling the stories that matter.
Become a memberIn an interview with Public TV on Friday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group was ‘on the agenda’ and that his government would ‘initiate discussion of this issue in the near future ourselves’.
Pashinyan’s response came in reply to a question of whether, ‘after fulfilling’ the two pushed preconditions, Azerbaijan might push others.
In a statement hours after Azerbaijan and Armenia separately announced that all terms of the deal were announced, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry named amendments to Armenia’s constitution and the dissolution of the ‘obsolete and dysfunctional’ OSCE Minsk Group as preconditions to signing the deal.
According to Pashinyan, the dissolution of the Minsk Group was among the issues ‘that can be discussed’, at the same time he noted that ‘there are issues that cannot be discussed’.
Pashinyan said that ‘as we are moving towards peace, this format is losing its relevance’.
He further elaborated that ‘in essence’, the Minsk Group ‘is about the conflict in the territory of Azerbaijan’, and since the two sides recognised each other’s territorial integrity ‘we are ready to put on the paper and we agree that there is no conflict situation’.
‘But we want additionally to make sure that Azerbaijan's goal is not to create a conflict situation in the sovereign territory of [...] Armenia after finishing to address the conflict situation in its territory’, Pashinyan said.
He added that when it was addressed, ‘or the mechanism for addressing the content would seem reliable and trustworthy, then of course we are ready also to engage in certain solutions’.
Asked if he already agreed to dissolve the Minsk Group before signing the treaty, Pashinyan avoided giving a direct answer, only saying that their ‘goal is not the deadline, our goal is the content’.
Pashinyan also addressed the second Azerbaijani precondition — the change of the Armenian Constitution, and again claimed that ‘this is an issue that pertains exclusively to our domestic agenda’, but also noted that ‘one must admit that this cannot but have a regional and international impact’.
At the same time, Pashinyan said that among his political team, there were ‘opinions that we should not postpone’ holding a referendum for the adoption of the new constitution, which was planned in 2027.
Pashinyan suggested that the referendum might be held together with the regular parliamentary election in 2026.
‘Therefore, turning to the question of whether Azerbaijan can put forward new demands, returning to the peace agenda, yes, Azerbaijan can bring new issues and questions to the agenda, but it does not mean that all these issues are questions of discussion for us’.
Pashinyan was also asked about Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent remark, ‘that the level of trust to Armenia is close to zero’.
In light of the lack of trust, Aliyev said ‘we need documents; we need papers’, from Armenia in order to demonstrate that the efforts towards the peace treaty are genuine.
Pashinyan also admitted the lack of trust, noting that ‘if there were no trust issues, then there would be two options — either the peace treaty would have long ago been signed or there would be no need for a peace treaty’.
He further noted that a provision in the agreed peace treaty is ‘on confidence building measures’.
Pashinyan was asked to comment on the recent series of Azerbaijani accusations that Armenia has been violating the ceasefire, which follow the announcement that both sides declared they had reached an agreement on the text of the peace treaty.
According to Pashinyan’s interpretation of these events, the ‘dissemination of news with the escalation logic, I think one of its goals is to disguise the real news under the flow of such news, and the real news is that the text of the peace treaty has been agreed upon and is waiting for being signed and therefore it must be signed’.
Pashinyan also said that ‘escalation in our region has no justification’.
Pashinyan did not agree with his critics’ comments that his government was engaged in making a list of concessions to Azerbaijan. Instead he claimed that currently, Armenia is ‘a much more independent and sovereign state’.
‘During all those periods of what people call periods of non-concessions, including during my term as Prime Minister, during that whole period we had conceded the most important thing we have, our sovereignty, our independence, and our statehood’.
Despite his government’s previous stance, that the peace process needed a guarantor, during the interview on Friday Pashinyan suggested the opposite.
‘There is one guarantee of Armenia’s security and it is [...] Armenia itself’ and that ‘there is no more effective tool to guarantee security than peace’.
‘There simply is no such tool’, Pashinyan said.
He suggested that it was a lesson learnt from history, referencing that, ‘in September 2022 when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia, Armenia had a guarantor’.
‘Then what happened?’, Pashinyan said, referring to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation’s lack of support.