What happened between Armenia and Azerbaijan last week?

On Thursday, Armenia and Azerbaijan made a historic step towards formalising an end to more than 30 years of conflict, when both sides agreed to sign a peace treaty.

Despite the promising moves forward, it was clear that putting to bed decades of grievances would not be a simple process. There are still roadblocks to the peace treaty actually being signed, and concerns that a new round of fighting could still arise in the interim — or even after the ink dries.

Here’s what you need to know about the developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the last week:

The agreement to sign a peace treaty

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told journalists on Thursday that negotiations on the text of the deal had been completed.

Armenia’s Foreign Ministry later confirmed that they had agreed to Azerbaijan’s latest proposals, and that the agreement ‘On the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations Between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan’ was ready to be signed.

On Thursday evening, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the deal was a compromise, adding that compromises were required for any such peace agreement.

The terms of the deal have not yet been made public.

However, Bayramov said that changes to Armenia’s Constitution that have long been demanded by Baku would occur ‘in the next phase’. Azerbaijani officials also insisted that the OSCE Minsk Group be dissolved. The Minsk Group, headed by co-chairs France, Russia, and the US, was the main venue for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan prior to the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

An unnamed Western official with knowledge of the topic told OC Media that the agreement included major concessions from Armenia, including the removal of EU monitors from the border and the dropping of lawsuits in international venues.

The official said the deal left out other sticking points, including changes to Armenia’s Constitution. They also said the issue of enclaves in Armenia and Azerbaijan that have been occupied by the other side since the fall of the Soviet Union was also not included.

The deal also reportedly does not include Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

Azerbaijan pushes ‘prerequisites’ for signing Armenia peace deal

In a statement on Thursday evening, hours after the deal was announced, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry named amendments to Armenia’s constitution and the dissolution of the ‘obsolete and dysfunctional’ OSCE Minsk Group as preconditions to signing the deal.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been actively pushing the need for a new constitution. In February, he again spoke in favour of adopting a new constitution through a national referendum in a speech dedicated to the ‘Real Armenia’ ideology developed by his government.

Despite the government insisting the change of constitution is an internal process and is not being done to meet Azerbaijani demands, critics have argued the move represents a bowing to pressure from Azerbaijani.

In February, Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan said that the referendum would ‘most likely’ take place after the parliamentary elections in 2026, which means that the actual signing of the deal could be delayed until next year.

Pashinyan speaks to Turkish media in ‘unprecedented event’

On Thursday evening, Armenia’s Public TV aired Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s interview with Turkish media outlets, an event Pashinyan called ‘unprecedented’. During the interview, Pashinyan discussed Armenia–Turkey relations, the ongoing trial of Armenian prisoners in Azerbaijan, and the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace negotiations.

In specific regards to some of Azerbaijan’s demands, Pashinyan spoke at length about the so-called Zangezur corridor, connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

While noting that this statement is brought up repeatedly in the context of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace negotiations, Pashinyan claimed that there is no mention of a ‘corridor’, with the expression of the Lachin Corridor.

He therefore emphasised that the ‘Zangezur corridor’ — a proposal to link mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan — was not a part of such statement, and therefore ‘there is no such agenda for providing a transport connection between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan’.

‘Armenia and Azerbaijan must mutually open communications for each other, both external and internal, that is, from Armenia to Armenia through the territory of Azerbaijan, and from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan through the territory of Armenia’, Pashinyan said, stating that Armenia had made a ‘very specific proposal’ to Azerbaijan on this topic.

Pashinyan also emphasised that Armenia perceives the expression ‘Zangezur corridor’ to be a ‘territorial claim against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia’, noting Azerbaijan’s repeated claims regarding what it calls ‘Western Azerbaijan’ make up ‘approximately 60-70%’ of Armenia’s sovereign territory.

‘Azerbaijan contradicts itself by the fact that they officially call 2021 and the following period a post-conflict period. But they speak the language of conflict every day’, Pashinyan said, before stating that, in contrast, ‘there is no expression of Western Armenia in our constitution’.

Aliyev says he does not ‘trust’ Armenia the same day Baku and Yerevan agree on a peace treaty

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev gave a speech at the 12th Global Baku Forum on Thursday, the same day that Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to sign a historic peace treaty that would end more than three decades of conflict.

Against the backdrop of the unprecedented step towards signing a treaty, Aliyev’s speech was nonetheless full of grievances, conspiracy theories, and attacks on Armenia, France, the EU, and Western media.

He also launched into a laundry list of historical grievances against Armenia, concluding that ‘that the level of trust to Armenia is close to zero’.

As a result, Aliyev said ‘we need documents; we need papers’, from Armenia in order to demonstrate that the efforts towards the peace treaty are genuine.

Azerbaijani pro-government media claims Armenia will launch war against Azerbaijan in April

In an article rife with AI imagery and baseless claims, the Azerbaijani pro-government media outlet Caliber claimed on Wednesday that Armenia is preparing to launch a war against Azerbaijan in April with the help of the civilian EU Mission in Armenia.

The allegations were later repeated in Aliyev’s speech on Thursday, with the added accusation that France would be ‘pushing [Armenia] to war again’.