On 4 October, two remarkable events are set to unfold in Georgia — the municipal elections and an anti-government demonstration, branded by its initiators as a ‘peaceful revolution’ and a ‘peaceful overthrow’ of Georgian Dream’s rule.
I feel uncertain about what exactly to expect from that day, and based on past experiences, I’m not even trying to form any specific expectations.
The elections issue has further fractured Georgia’s already fragmented opposition: two major opposition groups and several smaller parties are boycotting, arguing that participation would amount to legitimising Georgian Dream’s power.
Meanwhile, two other major opposition groups are taking part, saying they don’t see their participation as reinforcing the legitimacy of the ruling party, which has remained in office after the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections.
In the end, we are left with a situation where the largest opposition groups are absent from the ballots, while two smaller ones (not only according to the 2024 disputed elections, but also various surveys) are left to face off alone against the ruling party, which commands vast resources.
Will they be able to achieve any meaningful success? This is especially questionable given that, even aside from their political chances, the fairness and democratic character of the elections had already been in doubt, further compounded by the fact that neither the OSCE/ODIHR nor several major Georgian observer missions will be monitoring the process.
It is also difficult to predict what portion of the opposition’s electorate will actually turn out for the elections. Many activists who protest Georgian Dream’s rule on the streets are strongly opposed to opposition participation in the municipal vote.
What is clear, though, is that while Georgia’s opposition parties continue their endless, tiresome infighting (how surprising — as if I hadn’t seen this exact thing play out before), Georgian Dream is preparing to use the Constitutional Court to have them banned altogether. And this comes at a time when a growing number of opposition leaders are already behind bars.
On the other hand, some opposition figures have for weeks been announcing a large-scale anti-government rally in the centre of Tbilisi, in front of parliament. Protests have already been taking place there for more than 300 days, following the government’s EU U-turn, but the character of the planned demonstration is somewhat different: its proponents are vowing to bring an end to Georgian Dream’s 13 years-long rule in a single day, through a ‘peaceful revolution’.
Georgia’s political history has seen many dates and deadlines set by the opposition, yet no political power has stepped down as a result of street protests for the past 22 years.
How the organisers plan to achieve this now remains unclear. What we do know is that two opposition figures have already been arrested in connection with the rally: Levan Khabeishvili, one of the leaders of the opposition United National Movement (UNM) and arguably the loudest proponent of the 4 October rally, and fellow party member Zviad Kuprava.
No concrete plan of action for the day has yet been presented. It is also uncertain which segments of the opposition-minded public these calls will resonate with, and on what scale.
Some signs of mobilisation are visible on social media, while stickers and stencils announcing the rally can be seen here and there. Opposition-leaning TV stations are discussing the date, and the organisers are distributing flyers in the streets. Still, how all of this will materialise remains difficult to predict until 4 October arrives.
In any case, there’s not long left. In just two days we will find out how this much-anticipated day will enter the country’s history.
