Saakashvili says Russia will march through Georgia to attack Armenia if Pashinyan wins
Georgia’s imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili has suggested a scenario in which Russia could occupy Armenia via Georgia if incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wins in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Saakashvili also criticised the Georgian government, claiming it would ‘agree’ to a potential demand from Moscow.
‘Despite Zakharova’s praise of [the ruling Georgian Dream party], Putin’s threats toward Armenia are very dangerous for Georgia’, Saakashvili wrote in a Facebook post on Monday, referring to positive comments by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova about the foreign policy of the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Saakashvili claimed that if Pashinyan wins the 7 June parliamentary elections — which Saakashvili emphasised he ‘very much wants’ — Moscow will ‘immediately switch to plan B’.
‘[This is what] was done by [Russia] in Georgia, after I disrupted their plans in 2007 by calling and winning the presidential elections’, Saakshvili wrote, referring to the snap presidential election in Georgia in January 2008, following a political crisis. Saakashvili remained in power and the August 2008 War erupted later that year, which Saakashvili was likely referring to as Moscow’s ‘plan B’.
According to Saakashvili, who regularly comments on Georgian and international affairs from prison, ‘in this great geopolitical game, Moscow will not remember at all how it was appeased’ by Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, whom critics have repeatedly accused of pulling Georgia toward Russia’s political orbit.
‘Now Russia is threatening to send troops into Armenia, which would only be possible via Georgia, and if Russia decides to carry out such an operation, it will inevitably also occupy Georgia’, he added.
‘Russia will ask Ivanishvili to allow the passage of troops, and he will of course agree, and the public will be told that this does not concern us’, he wrote, adding that ‘after the occupation of Armenia, Russia will fully take over Georgia as well and will temporarily leave Ivanishvili as a leader, while completely controlling all aspects of Georgian life, securing recognition of occupied territories, and massively eliminating elements in Georgia that are undesirable to Russia’.
Saakashvili also accused Ivanishvili of preparing the ground for a Russian occupation, including ‘weakening the army’ and killing its ‘fighting spirit’.
‘We all have to bet on the strengthening of Ukraine as the only way to save ourselves and the Armenians’, Saakashvili wrote.
‘I do not want this prophecy of mine to come true, and the only thing that can prevent it is active military action on Ukraine’s part and the ultimate weakening of the Russian military machine, which I truly hope for’, he concluded.
While Moscow has not issued a direct threat to send troops to Armenia, it has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction over Armenia’s EU aspirations, amidst worsening relations between Moscow and Yerevan.
Xandie (Alexandra) Kuenning
In January, when Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov voiced the idea of Russia launching a new ‘special military operation’ against Armenia or Central Asia. The Russian Foreign Ministry distanced itself from his remarks, however, Zakharova did not directly criticise Solovyov at the time.
Georgian Dream repeatedly denies critics’ claims that it is isolating Georgia from its traditional Western partners and pursuing a course favourable to Russia. Meanwhile, the ruling party has accused Saakashvili of instigating conflict with Russia in 2008 — something it crystalised in its 2025 anti-opposition report, declaring Saakashvili’s rule as a ‘bloody regime’.
Saakashvili, one of the leaders of the 2003 Rose Revolution that overthrew then-President Eduard Shevardnadze following rigged parliamentary elections, was elected president in 2004 with an overwhelming majority through popular vote.
He remained in office throughout a tumultuous period of Georgian history, including the August 2008 War.
In the 2012 elections, Saakashvili and his United National Movement (UNM) party were defeated by the Ivanishvili-led Georgian Dream coalition, ending the party’s nine-year rule.
The following year, in 2013, Saakashvili’s presidential term also came to an end and he left the country soon after. Moving to Ukraine, he acquired citizenship there, and took up official positions.
In total, six cases were opened against Saakashvili under Georgian Dream’s rule, including for alleged abuse of power and embezzlement of state funds.
After facing multiple charges in absentia, Saakashvili was detained in October 2021 following his secret return to Georgia. He is expected to be released from prison in 2032.
