First seat forecast

With half of the votes now counted, we are releasing our first seat forecast. This number is subject to change as results continue to come in. Four parties and alliances look set to cross the thresholds to enter parliament with the following number of seats.

• Civil Contract: 61
• Strong Armenia: 28
• Armenia Alliance: 11
• Prosperous Armenia: 5

Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia is in a precarious position, however, with its vote share dipping below the 4% threshold several times during this evening’s count. If it were to finish below this number, its seats would go to the other three parties.

For now, parliament looks set to have 105 MPs (because of the way seats are calculated, this could also change as more results come in).