Armenia optimistic about signing peace treaty as ceasefire violations continue

Shortly after Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan made an optimistic statement suggesting that ‘perhaps soon there will be good news about the signing of the peace agreement’, additional ceasefire violations were reported by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

On Saturday morning, Armenia’s Defence Ministry reported that another residential building was damaged as a result of Azerbaijani fire in Khantsakh, Syunik. No casualties were reported.

The latest statement marked the sixth time that Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of damaging civilian objects in the border villages since 31 March, with all statements containing photos showing the damage caused as a result of the fire, along with the bullet fragments.

In all cases, Armenia also called on the Azerbaijani side to conduct an investigation and to ‘provide public explanations’.

Along with official statements, residents of Armenian border villages have reported hearing Azerbaijani fire every night for over a month and a half.

EUMA increases nighttime patrols as Azerbaijani accusations of ceasefire violations mount

There have been over 20 ceasefire accusations by Azerbaijan since the announcement that the terms of a peace deal had been agreed upon in March.

OC MediaXandie (Alexandra) Kuenning

In a second statement released on Saturday, Armenia refuted Azerbaijani accusations of firing in its direction that same morning.

This marked the 27th dismissal from Armenia since Azerbaijan launched a series of accusations shortly after the two agreed on the conditions of the peace treaty on 13 March.

Unlike in the previous cases, Armenia’s latest dismissal did not contain a note reminding the public of Armenia’s official proposal to establish a joint Armenia–Azerbaijan mechanism for investigating ceasefire violations and related reports. Neither did it contain a line expressing Armenia’s readiness to investigate the facts supporting the Azerbaijani accusations of ceasefire violations.

The text was left out after Armenian authorities reported on contacts with Azerbaijan regarding the ceasefire violations.

On 9 May, the Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, stated that Armenia had investigated all ceasefire violation claims made by Baku and shared the findings with Azerbaijan, concluding that ‘in general, there were no such violations’.

According to Grigoryan, Armenia, through diplomatic channels, requested that Azerbaijan provide their own information on ceasefire violations. He added that Armenia also provided Azerbaijan with information on violations committed by the Azerbaijani side and is expecting a thorough investigation.

Armenia reports new ceasefire violation following bilateral talks on past allegations

On Thursday, Armenia reported that another civilian object was damaged as a result of Azerbaijani fire.

OC MediaArshaluys Barseghyan

Will the peace treaty get signed soon?

Shortly after Armenia and Azerbaijan ostensibly agreed to the peace treaty, Azerbaijan pushed two preconditions before signing — amendments to Armenia’s constitution and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Azerbaijan pushes ‘prerequisites’ for signing Armenia peace deal

The prerequisites would make the signing of the deal impossible until at least 2026.

OC MediaArshaluys Barseghyan

On 9 May, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told RFE/RL that there had been ‘no progress yet, but there is a conversation’ with Azerbaijan regarding the peace treaty.

Mirzoyan also showed some optimism, suggesting that ‘perhaps soon there will be good news about the signing of the peace agreement’.

The next day, Mirzoyan’s Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, said during a press briefing that ‘Azerbaijan holds specific legitimate expectations of Armenia’, along with reiterating the Azerbaijani preconditions of signing the peace treaty.

‘We are following developments in these areas, and contacts are ongoing. However, concrete steps are what matter to us’, Bayramov said.

On 9 May, when asked whether Russia’s mediation could be considered along with active involvement by Turkey to finalise the deal, Grigoryan asked, ‘Whose side is Russia going to take?’.

‘We will discuss this matter when you have an answer to this question,’ he continued.

Despite the tension on the border, in his congratulatory message marking Victory Day, the 9 May commemoration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated his stance that ‘despite all internal and external provocations, there will be no war’ between Armenia and Azerbaijan, instead ‘there will be peace’.