What do the polls say?

Opinion polling in the run up to the vote has been scarce. However, two key polls give room for optimism for supporters of the government.

The first was conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in early May with a sample size of 1,511. It gave Civil Contract 32% support, compared to just 6% for Strong Armenia and 3% for the Armenia Alliance. Another, by CRRC Armenia, was conducted in late May with a sample size of 1,200. It gave Civil Contract 25%, Strong Armenia 4%, and the Armenia Alliance 2%.

Both polls included a large cohort who were either undecided or refused to answer on the question of who they would vote for, 44% for the IRI survey and 52% for the CRRC survey. Other responses in the data, however, suggest that among these people too the government has reason for optimism. This includes majorities in both surveys suggesting the country is going in the right direction, as well as support for the performance of political institutions.

There have also been several polls from less reliable sources suggesting the opposition is leading.